middle-east – Page 2 – Avanti Populo

US/Saudi pact a prospect?

31^st May 2024

All eyes on Rafah – Palestinians survey the damage done by an Israeli strike

As the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) assault on the civilian population of Rafah continues, under the thinly veiled excuse of rooting out Hamas fighters, behind the scenes discussions are ongoing to reshape the map of the Middle East.

The prospect of an historic pact between the United States and Saudi Arabia is gathering momentum with the carrot of access to the latest US military technology being dangled before the Arab dictatorship.

The deal could be part of a package to extend US influence in the Middle East by including a pathway to diplomatic ties with Israel. The quid pro quo would be that the Israelis halt the genocide in Gaza.

Negotiations between Washington and Riyadh have accelerated recently, with some reports that a deal could be reached within weeks.

An agreement would undoubtedly aim to reshape the Middle East in favour of the United States, reinforcing the ongoing support for its long term regional proxy, Israel, while bolstering influence in the Arab world by increasing weapons sales to the Saudi dictatorship. The US is keen to strengthen its position in the region, which it sees as being threatened by Iran and China.

The rumoured pact is thought to offer Saudi Arabia access to advanced US weapons that were previously off-limits. The dictatorship would then agree to limit Chinese technology from the nation’s most sensitive networks in exchange for major US investments in artificial intelligence and quantum-computing, as well as getting American assistance to build its civilian nuclear programme.

The conclusion of a US and Saudi Arabia agreement would, it is suggested, be followed by forcing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a choice. Netanyahu would be offered the opportunity to join the deal, which would entail formal diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia for the first time. Israel would also be offered more investment and regional integration. The challenge for Netanyahu would be to end the slaughter in Gaza and agree to a pathway for Palestinian statehood.

In such a scenario Netanyahu would clearly face the ire of the right wing religious fundamentalists who currently prop up his government and are determined not to see an independent Palestine. However, a pact with the US and Saudi Arabia could also be seen by Netanyahu as a counter to Iran’s growing influence in the region and a potential restraint on attacks by Iran backed militias such as Hezbollah.

With a US election only months away President Joe Biden is desperate for a foreign policy breakthrough and the issue of Gaza has proven divisive amongst Democrats domestically. Student protests on university campuses across the US have exposed a fault line between those calling for a harder line to be taken with the Israelis over the action in Gaza and those more inclined to back the apartheid regime at all costs.

The thousands killed by the Israelis in Gaza are widely seen as a disproportionate response to the attacks by Hamas on 7^th October 2023 and the recent vote by the United Nations General Assembly, to increase the status of the Palestinian state, although dismissed by Israel, has added to the international pressure for a lasting ceasefire. Subsequent recognition of Palestine by Ireland, Spain and Norway has increased the pressure upon the apartheid Israeli regime.

“We have done intense work together over the last months,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed recently, while in Saudi Arabia. “The work that Saudi Arabia and the United States have been doing together in terms of our own agreements, I think, is potentially very close to completion.” Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan has also said that an agreement was “very, very close.”

However, while Blinken and Biden may be making positive noises about a deal there is scepticism, not only from the right wing in Israel, but also in the US. Republicans are unlikely to countenance a deal which does not give Israel sufficient guarantees, in particular Saudi recognition of Israel, even of it does mean an increase in arms sales to the Saudi dictatorship.

For their part the Saudis are keen to get as strong a deal with the US as possible, the aim being a formal defence pact which would bring the US military into play should the dictatorship be attacked.

While Saudi Arabia and Iran have been moving to normalise relations recently, with the signing of a deal in March 2023, the two Islamic dictatorships remain wary of one gaining more influence than the other in the region. For the Saudis, a defence deal with the United States needs to be sufficiently robust to send a message to Tehran without alienating the Iranians. For Riyadh to decide to openly bolster its security cooperation with Washington the reward would have to be worth the risk. In effect, Saudi Arabia seeks a defence pact with the United States that is credible enough in the eyes of both friends and foes.

The escalating violence in Gaza and Israeli intransigence on the question of a two state solution for Palestine is likely to undermine previous US diplomatic initiatives such as the Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco.

While hailed by the US as a means to encourage Israel to take positive steps toward ending its occupation and annexation of Palestinian territory, the real premise of the Accords was to prove that the Palestinian issue was no longer an obstacle for Israel’s relationships in the region, as Arab states dropped their demand for a Palestinian state as a condition to normalising ties with Israel.

Far from curbing Israeli abuses the Accords have emboldened successive Israeli governments to further ignore Palestinian rights. In the first year after the Accords, settler violence dramatically increased in the West Bank. Following the election of Israel’s most right-wing government in history in 2022, cabinet ministers openly called for the annexation of the West Bank and announced massive settlement expansions.

The United States does not have a great diplomatic track record in the Middle East, putting its own imperialist interests ahead of those of the people of the region. There is little indication that current initiatives will see different results.

Cultural terrorism crackdown in Iran

6^th May 2024

Death sentence – Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi

Engulfed in political, social, and economic crises, as well as rampant corruption, the Iranian dictatorship has accelerated its crackdown on the women and youth of Iran. The regime is attempting to demonstrate to its remaining loyal supporters its unwavering commitment to its outdated and medieval beliefs. In addition, the regime is seeking to divert public attention away from its economic failures, endemic corruption, growing social ills, and the environmental destruction caused by its wasteful missile programmes, all of which have blatantly squandered hundreds of millions of dollars of public funds.

Confirmed reports from Iran tell of a calculated attempt by the regime to drive women and youth away from protests in the streets, main throughfares, and city centres.

The recent crackdown by the security forces on women is taking place against the backdrop of a failing economy and widespread public discontent. The Iranian dictatorial regime, which has failed to overcome the deep economic crisis it has created, is presiding over a relentless rise in the cost of living. The majority of the population is being crushed under the weight of meagre wages, at the same time as the price of basic goods, food items and rents is skyrocketing.

Protests by workers, teachers, pensioners, nurses, students, young people, and women across Iran reflect the dire economic situation and deep-seated opposition towards the continuing rule of the theocratic regime.

Jailed Iranian Nobel Peace Prize Winner, Narges Mohammadi urged Iranians to protest against “full-scale war against women” after authorities intensified their crackdown obliging women to obey the country’s Islamic dress code.

The recent crackdown on women in Iran is a direct consequence of the decree by Ali Khamene’i, the regime’s Supreme Religious Leader. Khamene’i’s aim is to return the country to how it was before the murder in custody of Mahsa Amini in September 2022 and the massive “Woman! Life! Freedom!” protests which followed. Since then, the majority of women in Iran have chosen to shed their hijab in a show of defiance against the misogynistic regime and public assertion of their rights.

As part of the regime’s current crackdown a death sentence has been passed upon underground Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi, an act described as cultural terrorism by the Committee for the Defence of the Iranian People’s Rights (CODIR). Calling for the unjust sentence to be quashed CODIR General Secretary, Gawain Little, voiced the organisation’s ongoing concern at the lack of freedom of expression in the Islamic Republic.

“Iran is a country with a significant youth population and popular artists like Toomaj Salehi are increasingly expressing the discontent that many young people feel about the theocratic dictatorship”, said Mr Little. “To sentence an artist to death, charged with ‘corruption on earth’, for nothing more than speaking out against the government is nothing short of cultural terrorism.”

Salehi, aged34, had gained widespread popularity with the youth of Iran, due to the challenging content of his lyrics, which addressed issues such as ethnic discrimination, child labour, human rights violations and protest activity.

Salehi was originally imprisoned for taking part in a peaceful protest, a verdict initially overturned by Iran’s Supreme Court before being reversed by a lower court in a bizarre manipulation of Iran’s judicial system.

The lower court, a branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Court in Isfahan, regarded the decision of the Supreme Court as ‘guidance’, before proceeding to confirm Salehi’s imprisonment and impose a death sentence upon him. The court alleged that Salehi had aided rebellion, committed assembly and collusion against the state, propaganda against the state and incited riots.

Salehi was originally arrested in October 2022 for participating in the countrywide Women, Life, Freedom movement protests, sparked by the murder in detention of Mahsa Amini the previous month. In July 2023 Salehi was handed a prison sentence of 18 year and 3 months for the original ‘corruption on earth’ charge.

While his case was referred to the lower court in Isfahan he was granted bail on 18 November 2023 only to be arrested less than two weeks later, on 30 November, for speaking out against the torture he endured while imprisoned. Salehi’s lawyers have vowed that they will appeal but without massive international pressure the regime is unlikely to change its stance.

With the regime’s actions, popular resistance has not dwindled in the least, and the solidarity demonstrated by the public, and support extended to those arrested, including efforts to secure their release, is growing markedly. All evidence points to the fact that the current resistance, together with popular support for women, is set to significantly broaden in scope.

The Committee for the Defence of Iranian People Rights (CODIR) strongly condemns the brutal assault on Iran’s brave and resilient women and calls on trade unions to protest the actions of the ruling regime in Iran.

CODIR believes that only through the concerted and widespread efforts of women’s rights organizations, human rights defenders, and the mobilization of public opinion around the world, expressing solidarity with the struggle of Iranian women and supporting their cause, can this oppressive regime be forced to retreat.

CODIR has also called for the international community to intervene, through the United Nations, to call for the release of all political prisoners and the dropping of charges against Toomaj Salehi.

More info at www.codir.net

More Casualties in a Series of Israeli Attacks Across Gaza

(report from the Communist Party of Israel)

Israeli occupation forces continued their airstrikes and artillery shelling across the Gaza Strip on Friday, April 5, resulting in numerous casualties among Palestinian its 182nd day in a row. In a preliminary toll, the ongoing Israeli onslaught on Gaza since October 7 of last year has resulted in 33,037 documented Palestinian fatalities, mostly children and women, while the number of injuries has reached 75,668.

Grieving Palestinian father Ashraf Abu Daraa bids a farewell for his two kids and pregnant wife who were killed last night in an Israeli airstrike targeting their home in Rafah (Photo: WAFA)

WAFA correspondents reported that Israeli artillery shelling targeted the central and western parts of Khan Yunis province, as well as the eastern part of Rafah city in southern Gaza. Additionally, a fierce airstrike hit the vicinity of Sheikh Zayed City in northern Gaza, while several areas in the central governorate of the Strip were subjected to Israeli artillery fire.

Simultaneously, local sources reported that Israeli warplanes targeted Tal al-Hawa west of Gaza before midnight, while artillery and aerial bombardments hit the southwestern and southeastern neighborhoods of Khan Yunis city, and the eastern part of Al-Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza. Earlier, Israeli artillery fire targeted the Qleibo and Sheikh Zayed areas in Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip, coinciding with the ongoing destruction of residential homes in central and western Khan Yunis by the occupation forces.

According UN reports, since October 7 and as of April 1, 428 Palestinians, including 110 children, have been killed by Israeli forces across the occupied West Bank, including occupied East Jerusalem, of whom 131 were killed since the start of 2024. In addition, nine were killed by Israeli settlers and three by either Israeli forces or settlers. Four additional Palestinians from the West Bank have been killed while perpetrating attacks in Israel. During the same period, some 4,760 Palestinians have been injured, including at least 739 children, the majority by Israeli forces. According to the Palestinian Prisoners Club, 11 Palestinians have additionally died in Israeli prisons since 7 October 2023, mainly due to reported medical negligence or abuse.

Iranian elections – regime legitimacy rocked

17^th March 2024

Protests continue across Iran

Parliamentary elections in Iran, earlier this month, have rocked the regime due to the obvious level of disaffection amongst the general population reflected in the all time low turnout. Even before the elections themselves the government had gerrymandered the process through the rigorous vetting of candidates in order to make sure the outcome was safe for the regime.

The extent of disqualification of candidates was such that even former President, Hassan Rouhani, a former beneficiary of such back room manoeuvres, was moved to protest. The fact that such a loyal servant of the regime saw fit to raise objections on this occasion is significant.

Other key personalities such as Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former Deputy Minister of Interior Affairs, imprisoned in Evin prison for criticising the leadership and holding them responsible for political, social and economic crises in the country, confirmed that he would not vote in the election.

“I will not vote to endorse corruption,” said Tajzadeh in a letter he wrote from Evin Prison. Tajzadeh, had previously applied to run for president, but his candidacy was rejected. He was jailed in October 2022 and sentenced to five years in prison on charges of “conspiring against security and spreading lies and propaganda against the regime.”

Tajzadeh criticised current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, for ignoring Iran’s dire realities and the people’s protests, urging Iranians to boycott the elections. He stressed Iran’s need for comprehensive development, accusing Khamenei of hindering reforms while lacking the wisdom to lead effectively.

“The majority of Iranians have decided to ignore the Supreme Leader and his propaganda machine, refusing to participate in the elections as a protest against the dire situation in the country,” wrote Tajzadeh. He also condemned the parliament’s ineffectiveness, citing its diminished powers and exclusion of independent voices.

The elections were regarded as invalid by all progressive forces, pro-reform forces generally and even certain groups of the fundamentalist forces were not happy to support the election. Significant calls by trade unions and pensioners groups, civic society advocates and supporters of human rights reform were routinely ignored by the regime.

While the regime in Iran did its utmost to urge voters to go to the polls, surveys showing that most voters did not intend to take part were proven correct. A recent poll conducted by Iran’s state television found that more than half of respondents were indifferent to the elections. The elections were the first since protest swept the nation following the death of Iranian Kurd, Mahsa Amini, after her arrest for allegedly violating the strict dress code for women.

The Women, Life, Freedom protests, which surged throughout the country following the state murder of Amini has undoubtedly been a key factor in undermining what little legitimacy the regime may have possessed, especially in the eyes of women voters.

Turnout was clearly low due to voter apathy and the desire to send a message to Iran’s theocracy. Amongst prominent Iranians pushing for a boycott, were imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi.

Official figures put the election turnout at 41% but this is widely regarded as being an exaggeration by independent observers. However, even this official figure makes the turnout the lowest since the 1979 revolution in Iran. In Tehran province, voter turnout was about 24%, another record low, underlining declining public interest in legitimising the Iranian state. The number of invalid or blank ballots is estimated to have been as high as 400,000 in Tehran alone, showing the extent of deliberate protest.

The reality for many in Iran is that economic hardship is an overriding factor as the Islamic Republic suffers under punishing international sanctions and rapid inflation. At Tehran’s storied Grand Bazaar, many shoppers simply wander the warren of aisles without buying anything, as prices have skyrocketed in recent years. In an oil rich country of over 85 million people, annual inflation is close to 50 percent, consumer prices remain high and Iranian currency is in virtual freefall.

Iran has suffered under crippling US sanctions since Washington’s unilateral withdrawal in 2018 from a landmark deal that had promised sanctions relief in return for curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme. The sanctions have sharply reduced Iran’s oil revenues and further restricted trade, helping to harden the decades-old enmity with the United States and Israel.

The regime’s manipulation of the process, and the inability of any candidates from opposition or reform groups in Iran to stand, means that conservative politicians will dominate Iran’s parliament, maintaining their hold on the Islamic Consultative Assembly.

With Presidential elections scheduled for 2025 in Iran the regime will clearly be concerned by the level of disaffection and dissent shown in the Parliamentary election results. Previous presidential elections have been carefully manipulated to ensure the safest outcome for the regime and have resulted in widespread protest as a consequence.

Given the growing scale of protest activity in Iran since September 2022, with the death of Mahsa Amini, there is every likelihood that the presidential contest next year will spark further dissent. The traditional response of the regime has been to crack down hard on such displays of opposition. Whether it will be able to sustain such tactics in 2025, as the Iranian people continue to question the legitimacy of the regime, remains to be seen.