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A Brexit breather…?

13th April 2019

GettyImages-1136148292Donald Tusk, Theresa May and Angela Merkel indulge in Brexit banter

If there is anything that is close to rivalling the ineptitude of the British government it is the indecisiveness of the European Union.  Faced this week with the opportunity to end it all, by pressing the Brexit button on 12th April, or offering a lengthy extension which would kick the Brexit can a long way down the road, the EU did neither.  Instead UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, had her plea of a short extension till the 30th June returned to her in a Hallowe’en mask, with an offer of an extension till 31st October.

The absurdity of this position has been rehearsed throughout the media this week.  It has however afforded the BBC in particular the opportunity to resurrect airtime for one of its darlings, Nigel Farage, trumpeting the launch of his latest vanity project, the Brexit Party.

Preparations are now underway for European elections on 23rd May, which the UK will contest unless, by some miracle, Parliament agrees a Brexit deal before then.  If the UK were to fail to take part in the elections Britain would automatically leave without a deal, effectively being kicked out of the EU on 1st June.

European Council president Donald Tusk said the UK was expected to “continue its sincere cooperation” while it is still a member state.  While Theresa May agreed the UK would continue to abide by its obligations, a tweet by Jacob Rees-Mogg MP on 7th April suggested that,

“If we are stuck in we must use the remaining powers we have to be difficult. Sincere co-operation so far seems to be a one way street.”

Needless to say, this caused much furore in Brussels in spite of Rees-Mogg’s relatively minor status in the scheme of things.  The implications of Rees-Mogg’s comment was taken to be an indication of how a more hawkish successor to Theresa May could engage with Europe, should the Prime Minister be forced to fall upon her sword.

Of more concern across Europe is the prospect of the election on 23rd May returning a highly Euro-sceptic bloc of MEPs from across the Member states.  With right wing governments in Poland and Hungary, the idiosyncratic nationalist Five Star Movement running the show in Italy, the fascist Vox party gaining seats in Spain and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (formerly National Front) poised to capitalise upon discontent in France, the EU project could look distinctly wobbly by the 24th May, whatever the state of play with Brexit.

The discontent in the UK could also provide oxygen for both UKIP and Farage’s Brexit Party.  A low turnout may play to their advantage.  Whatever the promises made by a British Prime Minister they are unlikely to play nicely if elected to an assembly they are dedicated to abolish.  Quite what sort of political platform any of the major parties will stand on, to elect MEPs for what may be a five month period, will also be interesting to see.

Negotiations between the Tory government and the Labour Party appear unlikely to be fruitful given the intransigence of the Government.  In spite of this the BBC, in the form of chief political correspondent Laura Kuenssberg, continue to characterise the negotiations as ones in which the Labour Party needs to give ground.  Perhaps Kuenssberg’s much trumpeted break from Twitter will help clear her political head.  Not something to rely on though.

Either way, most MPs are close to the end of their Parliamentary tether and are simply glad to be allowed a recess over Easter, before re-entering the Brexit fray on 23rd April.  Depending on progress once Parliament returns a General Election is still an option, as the only real prospect of renewing both a failed Parliament and a failed government.

Weighing against this is the fact that the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn victory is the only thread keeping the Tory Party together.  However, even that thread could snap once the Brexit bartering resumes.  A people’s government negotiating a people’s Brexit may yet be a possibility.

Netanyahu set to tighten grip

5th April 2019

NetanyahuPartners in Crime – Trump endorses Netanyahu re-election

With Israeli elections scheduled for 9th April incumbent Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, looks set to be returned to office in some form of coalition with ultra right nationalists, who are demanding the annexation of the occupied territories and the expulsion of all Arabs.

For a Prime Minister who, in his ten years in office, has stuck resolutely to positions including no withdrawal from the Golan Heights, no discussion of the status of Jerusalem and no acceptance of any Palestinian pre-conditions in negotiations, acceding to the demands of the ultra right would not be a great departure.

The Golan Heights, which is part of Syria, was occupied by Israel in 1967, has always been contested by the Syrian government and recognised as Syrian by the international community.  However, just two weeks ago the United States government formally recognised Israel’s ‘right’ to the Golan Heights.  The move follows the recognition by the US last year of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, in spite of its contested international status, and the promise to relocate the US Embassy there.

Over the past year Palestinians locked in the blockaded Gaza strip have been protesting against the Israeli occupation on a weekly basis.  Over that period alone Israeli soldiers have killed 194 people, including 40 children.  Nearly 29,000 people have been wounded of which 7,000 were shot with live ammunition.

The UN commission investigating Israeli claims that the protests are a cover for attacks upon the border fence, itself illegal, has not found this to be the case.  On the contrary, the UN said that the demonstrations were almost entirely civilian and the use of lethal force by the Israelis was neither necessary nor proportionate.  Israeli snipers have shot dead civilians hundreds of metres from the border fence.

The US has in effect been supporting Israeli action against the Palestinians.  Trump has made no secret of his support for Netanyahu and the feeling is mutual on the part of the Israeli leader.  The European Union on the other hand has done nothing to support the justified cause of the Palestinians.  As things stand there is little prospect of a peace settlement and Netanyahu’s re-election will only push that further from reach.

In the meantime the weekly protests by a blockaded people, armed with sticks and stones, will continue against one of the world’s most powerfully armed military regimes.  In any other part of the world such an army firing on unarmed civilians would be arraigned for war crimes.  It seems that, under US cover, the Israeli government not only has immunity but will continue to act with impunity.

Put It To The People in a General Election

23rd March 2019

Stop Brexit

Putting It To The People? A General Election would!

It may be a stretch to suggest that the UK is ungovernable at the moment but there can be little argument that it is ungoverned.  What passes for government at the moment, under the notional leadership of Theresa May, is little more than a loose coalition of warring factions unable to come up with any agreement on the way forward for Brexit.  This has effectively immobilised any meaningful discussion around major issues which continue to be the day to day concerns of the people of the UK; peace, health, homes and jobs.

This travesty is exacerbated by the fact that the Tories are only able to notionally govern as they are propped up by the votes of the unrepresentative gangsters from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).  The DUP pose as defenders of Northern Irish integrity but in reality continue to pursue their sectional and sectarian interests, in defending the rights and privileges of one section of the community in the annexed statelet.

The DUP plea for Northern Ireland to be treated the same as the rest of the UK in the withdrawal process contradicts their stand on social issues such as gay rights and abortion, where they are happy for the position in Northern Ireland to remain driven by their bigoted agenda.

The DUP position is reinforced by their ideological bedfellows in the European Reform Group (ERG), who are equally reactionary in their social policy and equally committed to steering the UK towards a no-deal Brexit.

The pressure to avoid no-deal continues to be the default position in Parliament, the media generally and, insofar as it is possible to gauge, with large sections of the population.  The Put It To The People campaign will no doubt point to the demonstration in London this weekend, in favour of a second referendum, and the four million signatures to the petition calling for the same as evidence of this.   A far as the evidence is presented, this would not appear to be an unreasonable position.

The anti no-deal tendency however is little more than a cover for the long running covert campaign to remain in the European Union.  If no-deal is off the table then the UK must leave with a deal.  The deal presented by the Prime Minister has been rejected twice by the House of Commons.  She may not test it a third time.  The deal proposed by the Labour Party has also suffered defeat in the House of Commons.  Remainers argue that if no-one can agree a deal, the only options are to remain, or go to a so-called People’s Vote.

The Labour Party position, to have a UK wide customs union, close alignment with the single market and co-operation on workers’ rights, environmental and security issues, is one around which the EU would be prepared to negotiate.  Its chances in the House of Commons however have been sabotaged by those in the Labour Party committed to remain in the EU at all costs, in spite of having been elected on a manifesto which promised to deliver Brexit.

The departure into political exile of Chukka Umunna and the so called Independent Group (IG) has simply reduced Labour’s voting power in the Commons.  More sinister is the formation of the Future Britain Group, spearheaded by Labour Deputy Leader, Tom Watson.  When the IG made their move on the 18th February Tom Watson lamented their departure, suggesting that a front bench reshuffle would be in order to accommodate different views within Labour.

Watson was less keen to publicise that on the very day of the IG departure (18th February) the website domain name futurebritaingroup.co.uk was registered.  Less than three weeks later, on 9th March, Watson announced the formation of the Future Britain Group, an open faction within the Labour Party.  All coincidence?  Perhaps…..

It is not surprising that Watson will be addressing the Put It To The People march in London this weekend.  The remain faction in Labour is alive and kicking.  Their opposition to Jeremy Corbyn at all costs continues to be their modus operandi.  In that respect they are effectively working hand in glove with the DUP and the ERG on an ‘anything or anyone but Corbyn’ agenda.

Where the voting will go and how factions will align and divide in the House of Commons next week is anyone’s guess but no-deal is looking like a distinctly possible outcome.  If that is the case then it must be followed by a real People’s Vote, in the form of a General Election, a chance to put the Labour programme in its entirety in front of the British people.

Now that would be worth marching for.

Is the Iranian regime anti-imperialist?

8th March 2019

The occasion of the 40th anniversary of the revolution in Iran has resulted in a plethora of articles analysing the origins of the revolution and its development.  Jamshid Ahmadi assesses the reality.

iran demo Protests against the regime and Western intervention, a daily feature of life in Iran

The mantra that my enemy’s enemy is my friend can have some mileage and as a starting point in assessing our attitude towards any given regime may not be bad place to begin.  However, it is a dangerous principle to apply too rigidly because, in many circumstances, the complexities beneath the surface require a more nuanced response.  Very little in international politics is strictly black and white.

This is particularly the case when considering the position of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the attitude that the Left should adopt towards the regime.

There can be no doubt that the basis of the 1979 revolution was a progressive one, in spite of the widespread portrayal in the Western media of despots deposing the Western friendly regime of the Shah.

The Shah’s power base was the British and United States oil corporations who had installed him in power in 1953, in an MI6 and CIA backed coup against the democratically elected Prime Minister Mossadegh.  The administration under Mossadegh had initiated a process of nationalising the oil industry and had kicked out British contractors.  The plan was to take back Iranian oil assets for the benefit of the Iranian people, rather than the Anglo-Iranian Oil Corporation who had controlled Iran’s natural assets for most of the twentieth century.

Not surprisingly, the leeching away of Iran’s natural resources to line the pockets of Western millionaires proved to be an unpopular approach with broad sections of the Iranian people.  While the Shah was able to create a relatively prosperous middle class, on the back of oil and gas revenues, the lot of Iranian workers was one of low pay, uncertain employment and widespread poverty.

SAVAK, the Shah’s infamous secret police, were used by the regime to keep the population in line and to quash any sign of protest or unrest.  Nevertheless, protests began at least two years before the revolution in February 1979, with workers defying the authorities and taking to the streets.  Their demands focussed upon an end to the repressive regime of the Shah and calls for a system based upon democracy and social justice.

That the demands of the working class and the Left also chimed with those of the clergy ensured that the base of the national democratic revolution, which saw the overthrow of the Shah, was a broad and popular one.

The overthrow of a staunch ally inevitably meant that the Western powers characterised the revolution as hostile to their interests.  The holding of 52 US hostages in the former US Embassy in Tehran, from November 1979 until January 1981, only exacerbated the image of the revolution that the West sought to portray.

The position was further complicated by the Western inspired attack upon Iran by Iraq, in September 1980, which initiated a conflict that was to last eight years and cost over 1 million lives.  The war also became a key source of income for the West’s military industrial complex.  At one stage the UK government were training Iraqi pilots while selling anti-aircraft weaponry to Iran.

Internally however the war was the means by which the clergy consolidated its power inside Iran.  Calls to unite the nation against the Iraqi invader went hand in hand with attacks upon the Left, which resulted in imprisonment, torture and exile for many.  While the Left was far from supine in the face of this onslaught it was not united.  Calls for a people’s front, against the subverting of the aims of the revolution by the clergy, did not result in the required unification of Left forces.  Within three years the clergy had managed to secure complete control of the entire state apparatus.

While the initial demands of the national democratic revolution in 1979, for peace, social justice and democracy were undoubtedly anti-imperialist in character there is nothing to commend the subsequent theocratic takeover of all levers of power by the reactionary clergy.

The record of the regime on human rights, social justice and equality is nothing short of appalling and has been rightly condemned by solidarity organisations around the world.  The unjust imprisonment, torture and execution of trade union activists, women and the political opposition continues unabated.  The basic freedoms of expression and assembly are denied to those critical of the regime.

In economic terms the oil and gas wealth of the nation now lines the pockets of the corrupt clergy and their allies, rather than the Western corporations.  The outcome for the ordinary people of Iran is little different to the days of the Shah, with unemployment, unpaid wages and poverty prevalent.

The Iranian regime has been inflicting abuses upon its citizens for nearly forty years, so why do some on the Left still see the regime in Iran as an ally in the wider anti-imperialist struggle?

While brute force has been the stock in trade of the theocratic dictatorship of the Islamic Republic the regime in Iran has not survived for 40 years without employing a certain amount of guile.

The international balance of forces has shifted over that time, with the defeat of the Soviet Union, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and the intensification of the oppression of the people of Palestine by the state of Israel, being key features of the current period.

The Iranian regime has positioned itself in direct opposition to US allies in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia; supported Syrian President Bashir al Assad against external Western intervention; and supported Houthi rebels in Yemen, resisting the onslaught of the Western armed Saudi coalition.

Recent talks in Moscow, with leaders from Russia and Turkey, to seek a resolution to the civil war in Syria are designed to reinforce Iran’s anti-Western appeal.  Trade deals with China, North Korea and Venezuela also help reinforce Iran’s position as part of an anti-Western camp.

However, while chanting anti-Western slogans, the Islamic Republic remains desperate to attract Western investment to prop up its ailing economy.  Technological development is required if the economy in Iran is to progress and reliance on oil sales is vital to the economic survival of the regime.

For the Iranian regime the nuclear deal signed in 2015 with the US, EU and China, was an opportunity to open up the economy for exploitation through the lifting of sanctions.  The reneging on that deal by the Trump administration in the US has plunged the Iranian economy into a tailspin.

The international alliances forged by the Iranian regime are not out of a sense of anti-imperialist solidarity but the need to shore up the theocracy at any cost.  Like the last days of the Shah, the Islamic clergy are increasingly blind to the reality of protests around them.  Across eighty cities there were protests and demonstrations, on a massive scale in January 2018 and action has continued in a wide range of workplaces and cities since then.

The task for the Left in the West is not to find justifications for supporting the Iranian regime as some kind of anti-imperialist bastion.  On the contrary, as in the time of the Shah, it is the Iranian people feeling the brunt of the repressive policies of the regime who need international support and solidarity.  The demands of protesters over the past year have become increasingly political in character, demanding an end to the widespread corruption practiced by the regime and seeking a democratic way forward for Iran.

As the situation inside the country becomes more volatile there can be no doubt that the West will seek to impose a solution.  It is not beyond the bounds of the West to go the route explored in Syria and look to create a Free Iranian Army as a conduit for cash and weapons.

This would spell disaster for the Iranian people.  Having been thwarted in their national democratic desires once already the Left should not be complicit in the Iranian people being thwarted again.  The future and fate of Iran should be in the hands of its people, without Western political or military interference.

The support of the Left should be firmly on the side of the demands of the people of Iran for peace, social justice and democracy and firmly against the theocratic dictatorship, which for forty years has denied this to them.  Is Iran anti-imperialist?  If that is the right question the answer must be, not yet and it never will be under the current regime or with continued Western interference and intervention.  However, with the support of the Left, the Iranian people may be able to pick up where they left off in 1979 and truly follow through to deliver a real revolution for Iran.

Jamshid Ahmadi is assistant general secretary of Codir, the Committee for Defence of the Iranian People’s Rights. For more information on Codir please visit: www.codir.net

This article first appeared in the Morning Star (5th March 2019)

 

 

 

 

 

No More, Mr. Nice Guy?

3rd March 2019

Tom WatsonTom Watson – really as good as he seems?

Tom Watson, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party.  There’s a nice guy.  Loves music, goes to Glastonbury.  Realised that he ought to lose weight to address health issues and has done so.  Slimmer, fitter and infinitely plausible sounding.  Just the kind of guy to take the antisemitism row in the Labour Party to the next level.  Who would believe that Tom Watson would be anything other than reasonable?

Tom Watson knows this.  Those stirring up the antisemitism row in the Labour Party know this.  The Mossad agents who, if they are not directing all of this will be wishing they were, know this too.

As Deputy Leader of the Labour Party you would think it would be Tom Watson’s job to know the rules of that party.  There is every chance that he does.  So he will know that there is a clearly stated policy position; clear recommendations from an internal report by Shami Chakrabarti; and clear procedures for dealing with accusations of antisemitism within the Labour Party.

None of these processes include bypassing democratically agreed structures and taking any complaints you have directly to the Deputy Leader.  Yet this is what Tom Watson is proposing. In spite of any complaints or accusations having to go through an agreed procedure with General Secretary, Jennie Formby, Watson is proposing to tear up the rule book and suggest that complaints come to him.

Quite how Watson is proposing to deal with such complaints is unclear.  There is nothing in the Labour Party rule book to give the Deputy Leader the power of judge and jury when it comes to matters of internal party discipline.  In fact, should Watson read the rule book, he will find that there is no role at all.  Of course, Watson knows this.

So why the grand gesture?  Watson, and those perpetrating the antisemitism row, are waking up to the fact that Labour Party members on the ground know this is a sham, that antisemitism is neither institutional nor endemic within the Labour Party.  The widely reported comments of Chris Williamson MP, at a meeting in Sheffield last week, that Labour has been too apologetic about antisemitism and has been demonised by the media over the issue, hit the mark with many local activists.

Watson could not allow this to pass by without a response that would grab the media headlines.  His suggestion that complaints should go through him was designed to do just that.  With its usual lack of rigour, the BBC spent no time analysing the practicality or legitimacy of Watson’s suggestion but simply ran with it as part of its long running anti-Corbyn agenda.

This weekend The Observer joined the fray with a front page lead article claiming Labour faces new row over efforts to curb antisemitism (The Observer 3rd March 2019), its thinnest piece of journalism in a long time, based on internal emails over a year old, discussing how best to handle procedures internally within the Labour Party.

Internal investigations by the Labour Party and the cross-party Commons Home Affairs Committee have exonerated Labour of the “institutional racism” which its detractors claim.  The reality is that for many in the political establishment and media, the prospect of a Labour government which may question, and even criticise, the actions of the Israeli government in Palestine is too much to contemplate.

Many Israelis criticise the actions of their own government.  Many Jews not living in Israel, including Jewish Voice for Labour, are critical of the actions of the Israeli government.  These criticisms are no more tropes for antisemitism than criticism of Donald Trump makes us racially anti-American.  The Israeli government, its flaunting of international law, its illegal policy of occupying Palestine and its random killing of Palestinian demonstrators, are all legitimate areas for debate and criticism.

The antisemitism row within the Labour Party is expressly designed to suppress debate on these issues; conflate legitimate criticism of the Israeli government with racism; and undermine the credibility of the Labour Party in general and its leader in particular.  It is an organised, systemic campaign of vilification, with the clear objective of destabilising the Labour Party and undermining its chances of forming a government.

Tom Watson received nearly £65,000 between December 2015 and June 2018 from pro-Israeli government lobbyists.  At a critical point in the political life of the UK and with the prospect of Labour winning a general election a real possibility, is he really the man to be second in command?  Mossad may think so but should we?

Political oblivion beckons for closet Tories

23rd February 2019

TIG

So called Independent Group smile in the face of political oblivion

Labour splitters finally took the plunge this week with the insignificant seven firstly making their move, to set up the so called Independent Group, closely followed by Labour Friends of Israel Chair, Joan Ryan, and three austerity supporting Tories, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen.

Quick to spot an opportunity to hang onto some headline grabbing political coat tails Lib Dem leader, Vince Cable, has offered a non aggression pact with any Independent Group MPs who trigger by-elections in their constituencies, by not standing candidates against them.

The flaw in Cable’s plan is all too obvious.  These worthy democrats, advocates of a second vote on the EU referendum, elected on the Labour manifesto of 2017, which clearly stated Labour would seek the best Brexit deal for the UK, are reluctant to stand down and test their views with their own constituents.  The same is true of the Tory troika.

Justification for this was put by Enfield North MP, Joan Ryan, interviewed on Radio 4 this week.  When asked why she would not be standing down to put her position to voters in a by-election she was quite clear as to her reasons.  Slightly paraphrasing, she essentially said that she had made it clear to voters in 2017 that Jeremy Corbyn had no chance of becoming Prime Minister, so they could still vote for her, safe in the knowledge that Corbyn would not end up in Downing St as a result.

Quite what mandate Ryan believes that position gives her is open to question.  The assumption that voters put their cross against her name on that basis, rather than voting for the Labour candidate because Corbyn offered a genuine alternative, is probably delusional.  In any event, it does not suggest that any great efforts will be made to woo Ryan back into the Labour ranks.  She is clearly better left heading towards political oblivion with her cohorts.

The hypocrisy of the Independent Group having shown itself in its first days, there is little that is likely to commend them to an electorate desperate for a resolution to the Brexit issue, an end to austerity and a programme which offers a vision to rebuild the UK economy by investing in people and the regeneration of public sector services.

As the Tory party continues to fracture over the Brexit issue it remains Labour that has the only clear position that can lead the UK to a resolution of the crisis.  Jeremy Corbyn, in his letter to Theresa May, on 6th February clearly articulates what is needed.  A UK wide Customs Union, close alignment with the Single Market, agreement on workers rights, environmental and security issues.

This is a position many EU leaders have said they could do business with.  It is a position which could command the support of the majority of MPs in the House of Commons.  It is a position which exposes the hypocrisy of both the hard right Tory European Reform Group and the closet Tory, Independent Group.

It is a position which it should be easy for Labour MPs to articulate and hold the government to account for failing to deliver.

Three Cabinet Ministers, led by Amber Rudd, are calling upon Theresa May to rule out a no deal Brexit, in line with Labour’s position, and are preparing to vote for an amendment in the House of Commons to this effect.  What little support May thought she could hang onto is clearly dwindling.  The Tories are limbering up for a leadership challenge in the summer and are beginning to jostle for position.

At a time when a united opposition is the real necessary ingredient to continue the push for a general election, the Labour right wing create a diversion by putting their own personal position and egos before the needs of the people.  The Independent Group is a sham.  Once its members are put to a vote of the people, it will quickly be exposed as one.  The sooner we can get to that point and have a Labour government with a radical programme of reform elected, the better.

Mexican Wall Stand-Off

17th February 2019

Trump WallTrump and cohorts examine a wall ‘prototype’

United States president, Donald Trump, has declared a “national emergency” on the country’s southern border with Mexico, in an attempt to secure the funds to build the controversial wall between the two countries.  Trump’s announcement was linked with his willingness to sign a bill to avoid another government shutdown, the last of which lasted for 35 days over the Xmas and New Year period, and affected 800,000 public sector employees.

Many of the federal workers, who were locked out or forced to work without pay for five weeks, still have not been paid, are struggling with rent and mortgage arrears and many are threatened by property repossession, such are Trump’s ‘man of the people’ credentials.

The bill, which released federal funds and avoided another government shutdown, sanctioned the release of $333 billion of which only $1.3 billion was designated for “border security”, Trump’s euphemism for the wall, which is well short of the estimated $5 billion + required to build a structure along the 2000 mile border with Mexico.

Opponents have already questioned the legitimacy of Trump’s declaration under the National Emergencies Act, which was designed to allocate funds to major natural disasters or catastrophic events.

Senator Bernie Sanders has made his opposition plain, stating,

“It is clear to me that there is not a ‘national emergency’ with regard to the southern border.  What President Trump is doing is unlawful and must be opposed vigorously in the courts and legislatively.”

Sanders is one of the promoters of two bills in Congress aimed at preventing the president from diverting military construction and disaster relief funds into the building of the wall.  House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi has been clear that,

“This is not a national emergency and the president’s fearmongering doesn’t make it one.”  Adding that, “Declaring a national emergency would be a lawless act, a gross abuse of the power of the presidency and…naked contempt for the rule of law.”

Attorney Generals from states across the US are preparing legal challenges if Trump looks to divert federal funds for the border wall project.

While the national emergency is widely seen by Democrats as a money grab by the President, the Communist Party of the USA has seen even more sinister intent behind the move.  In the People’s World (15/2/19) paper of the CPUSA, it was suggested that for most Republicans building the wall was not the main issue,

“What they really want is to keep the issue alive to stir up racism and fear among white voters. Their hope is that white voters in general, like much of the Trump base, will see immigrants and people of color as the enemy. That fear plus fear of socialism and communism and the fear that Democrats are the party of all those “invaders” and “socialists” seems to be the way they want to go for the 2020 Trump re-election campaign. And even if Trump is impeached the strategy will work, they hope, for the rest of the Republican Party. The phony “national emergency” helps lay the groundwork for this racist strategy while, at the same time, testing just how far the president can go in overthrowing constitutional norms.”

Pro-Latino groups in the US have certainly expressed concern that, whether or not the wall gets built, Trump is drumming up a racist agenda with more money for beds in detention centres and a massive increase in agents to run down undocumented migrants.  The scapegoating of the Latino community as criminals certainly appears to be a key focus of the funding package and one which representatives of the Latino communities in the US intend to vigorously oppose.

Trump himself has been his usual blasé self, announcing in a press conference,

“We will have a national emergency and we will then be sued, and they will sue us in the 9th Circuit, even though it shouldn’t be there, and we will possibly get a bad ruling and then we’ll get another bad ruling and then we’ll end up in the Supreme Court.”

Clearly Trump is relying upon the conservative Supreme Court to go his way but, even without this outcome, the legal wrangling will no doubt fuel his re-election campaign as 2020 approaches.  Without a single brick being laid in the building of a wall Trump’s racist agenda will set the tone for the next battle for the White House.  The Democrats will need a determined and pro-people based campaign to make sure the Trump bandwagon does not gather momentum.