26th May 2024
Rishi Sunak in Belfast this week – life jacket essential!
The decision by British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, to call a General Election for 4th July has been greeted with bemusement, not least within his own Party. The merest hint of economic good news, that prices continue to rise but by 2.3% rather than the double figures of a year ago, seemed to be enough to fire the starting gun for the campaign trail.
However, given the predictions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), neither of which hold out much hope for growth in the British economy over the next year, July may be Sunak’s best, if still slim, hope.
The OECD see growth at 0.4% this year with the IMF suggesting 0.7%. The IMF went on to suggest that the government’s sums for the next five years would see a £30 billion gap between what it proposed to spend and the amount it expected to raise in revenue. True to form the IMF suggested that the government would need to increase borrowing, raise taxes or cut public spending to meet these targets. With Chancellor Jeremy Hunt ruling out more borrowing, proposing to cut taxes, that just leaves another assault on public services in prospect if the Tories did pull off the minor miracle of re-election.
While Sunak pores over economic spreadsheets and concerns himself with the opinion of the Financial Times readership, the outlook in the real world is quite different. Quite apart from the catastrophe of 14 years of Tory government, with the damage inflicted upon public services and working class communities, there is the fact that since the calamity of the Liz Truss mini-budget alone shop prices are 20% higher than they were in 2021. For families eking out a living on the margins, forced to make the dreaded choice of whether to heat or eat, these figures have a massive impact. Inflation reducing to 2.3% will make little difference.
The first few days of campaigning have reinforced the sense that Sunak is out of touch with the real world. His initial announcement outside 10, Downing St in a torrent of rain, was to a serenade of Things Can Only Get Better, quite audible in the background. As the rain poured and the music blared, Sunak did not look like a man with any grip on his destiny.
The week has continued with a visit to the Titanic museum in Belfast, prompting a journalistic wit to ask if Sunak was the captain of a sinking ship. One senior Tory has been quoted as saying,
“It’s quite staggering that we’ve managed to call a snap election that took ourselves by surprise.”
Not exactly a vote of confidence. Former leadership candidates, Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove have announced that they will not be standing for re-election. Gove is misleadingly described as a ‘big beast’ in the Tory ranks, though the only jungle creature he shares traits with is of the distinctly reptilian variety.
The latest Tory attempt at a vote winning campaign wheeze has been the announcement to bring back National Service, compelling all 18 year olds to serve a year in the armed forces or be engaged in some form of community service. Clearly Tory focus groups have not included anyone in the youth demographic, for whom this suggestion will have all of the buoyancy of a lead balloon. No doubt young people will already be mobilising to resist the call up. Another five weeks of this and Labour’s strategy of saying as little as possible will begin to look astute!
The Guardian columnist, Marina Hyde, has characterised the approach of Kier Starmer as being like “watching a very buttoned up man try not to have an accident.” It is certainly true that the Labour leadership could be more adventurous and that the commitment to supporting working class communities and trade union rights could be more robust. The six point plan announced by Kier Starmer is very much a dilution of the platform upon which he was elected leader and has been countered by the Left in the form of the Socialist Correspondent, which has suggested the following 6 steps towards peace and socialism:-
- Peace and Non-Alignment
- Sustainability
- Health and Education
- Public Ownership
- Public Housing
- Democratic and Workers’ Rights
The full article articulating the case for the above points can be found here https://www.facebook.com/story.php?id=100064546488320&story_fbid=846049760889899&__n=K
A vote for Labour will be essential in order to get the Tories out. A Labour government led by Kier Starmer however, will need to be kept under constant pressure not to succumb to the demands of the City of London and big business, not to make working class communities pay for the failings of the capitalist system and to begin the process of real, not just superficial, change in the interests of the working class.
The next five weeks will be crucial in ensuring the election of a Labour government; the following five years will be even more crucial, in ensuring that a government serving the interests of the working class emerges.
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