7th October 2023
Labour leader Keir Starmer has said he will honour the oil and gas licences granted by the Tories
Labour activists will gather in Liverpool this weekend with the boost of a victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton by election, doubling Labour’s parliamentary representation in Scotland from one to two seats. While this has certainly generated buoyancy in the Labour leadership the result does not necessarily mean a groundswell in Labour votes amongst the Scottish working class. If anything, the 37.2% turnout, down from over 65% in 2019, suggests that there is still a huge undecided cohort of voters to play for. In spite of this result Labour is still far from a shoo in at the next General Election.
Labour’s retreat from championing the needs of Scotland’s working class has been a key feature of its dwindling support for decades, pushing many voters into the arms of the nationalist Scottish National Party (SNP), always ready with the illusion of the lure of independence as the promised land of prosperity.
Labour’s chances in Scotland have been enhanced, not so much by the leadership taking a stand in favour of workers’ rights, but on the recent implosion of the SNP. This followed the resignation of erstwhile leader, Nicola Sturgeon; the police investigation into finances, under the control of Sturgeon and her SNP Chief Executive husband, Peter Murrell; and the less than enthusiastic reception accorded new SNP leader, Humza Yousaf, from sections of the party.
Like the opportunity created by the implosion of the Tories across Britain, Labour is staring into an open goal in Scotland and a tap in should ensure it a substantial increase in the number of seats in the House of Commons in 2024, potentially making a decisive contribution to the election of a Labour government.
Speeches on the conference floor and on the fringes in Liverpool will no doubt reflect this mood of optimism but Labour’s retreat from key position in recent weeks will give many cause for concern that an already weak programme will be diluted further in the election manifesto.
On the question of private schools for example, Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves was quite emphatic in 2021, stating,
“Here’s the truth: private schools are not charities. And so we will end that exemption and put that money straight into our state schools. That is what a Labour government will do.”
However, only two weeks ago, in the face of outcry from the private school sector, the Labour leadership said it no longer needed to end the charitable status of private schools to achieve its policy of charging 20% VAT on fees and ending business rates relief in England.
The Labour leadership had previously shown little backbone following Tory leader Rishi Sunak’s revision of green policies, by pushing back the ban on the production of new petrol and diesel car production from 2030 to 2035. While Labour has supported the original position, consistent with achieving net zero carbon targets by 2050, it wobbled following Sunak’s announcements and claimed it would not reverse it if elected.
At the same time, the announcement of the development of the Rosebank oilfield, one of the biggest new oil and gas projects in years, saw further Labour equivocation. Earlier in the year Labour shadow energy secretary, Ed Miliband, attacked the Rosebank oil field proposal as a “colossal waste of taxpayer money and climate vandalism.”
Immediately following the announcement however Labour leader, Kier Starmer, was on the airwaves stating that “…as a matter of principle we will accept the baseline that we inherit from the government if we win that election … in order to ensure we have the stability that we desperately need in our economy.”
All of which casts some doubt on the firmness of Angela Rayner’s “cast iron commitment”, as articulated in a speech at the TUC conference in Liverpool in September, to push through an employment rights bill within 100 days of entering office if the General Election is won by Labour.
Rayner also promised the repeal of Tory anti-trade union minimum service levels legislation, which requires minimum levels of service during a strike, characterising it as a “spiteful and bitter attack that threatens nurses with the sack”. Labour’s New Deal for Working People would include protections against unfair dismissal, a ban on zero-hour contracts, more flexible working and ending fire and rehire.
Labour still effectively takes the Tory whip on key foreign policy issues, such as Trident nuclear submarine replacement; fuelling the war in Ukraine; demonising China; and defending foreign interventions in general, as part of the NATO military alliance.
Left leaning delegates will have their work cut out over the weekend to make any headway on getting more progressive policy positions passed, let alone have any chance of them making a Labour manifesto. The current right wing grip on candidate selection and policy development will ensure that, if the outcome of a General Election is a Labour victory, it will be led by a Cabinet shaped in Kier Starmer’s image.
Should that come about the honeymoon will no doubt be short lived, as workers realise that Labour is not delivering for them, that the profits crisis that threatens workers cost of living is not resolved, and that the climate emergency is not being tackled with sufficient vigour.
The challenge to keep the Red Flag flying, “while cowards flinch and traitors sneer” will continue to be real and require both pressure upon representatives in Parliament, and mass extra parliamentary action, if any semblance of benefit for the working class is to emerge from a Labour government.
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