22nd July 2023
Summer Arctic sea ice extent is shrinking by 12.6% per decade as a result of global warming.
The record for the hottest day on Earth has been broken three times in just over a week. Searing heat is sparking forest fires across Europe and North America. Ocean temperatures are dangerously warm and arctic ice is melting at an alarming rate. Anyone not recognising the realities of the climate emergency is either in denial or making a healthy profit from oil and fossil fuels.
At the COP27 conference in Egypt last November developing nations succeeded, at the eleventh hour, in securing an agreement which will see them entitled to hundreds of billions of dollars a year as reparations for the “loss and damage” of climate change, which richer nations have created.
The fund, which it was widely expected would take at least a year to work out entitlements, is in addition to the promise of wealthy nations to provide $100 billion to help vulnerable areas reduce emissions and adapt to warming that is already underway.
However, this is a promise which has not been fulfilled and there is a legitimate fear amongst climate change activists that protracted negotiations over loss and damage arrangements could take a long time to bear any fruit.
The most recently published, Global Carbon Budget, an annual assessment of how much the world can afford to emit to stay within its warming targets, found that greenhouse gas pollution will hit a record high this year. Much of the growth comes from a 1% increase in carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels.
The report indicates that nations are likely to burn through their remaining carbon budget in less than a decade, if they do not significantly reduce greenhouse gas pollution. This will result in the world passing the critical warming threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in a mere nine years, resulting in catastrophic climate impacts. These impacts will disproportionately hit the poorer and developing nations, exacerbating already significant imbalances in wealth and resources across the world.
It was hoped that COP27 would have been the focal point for the call for greater investment in renewable and alternative energy sources. However, leaders at COP27 were advocating natural gas as a transition fuel, from fossil based energy to renewables. At least four new gas projects were announced last year, looking to plug the gap in supply, as a result of the reduction in supply from Russia.
Climate scientists have stressed that planned expansion goes beyond what is needed to replace interrupted Russian fuel supplies. The proposals also fly in the face of findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency that there can be no new gas, oil and coal development if humanity wants to prevent dangerous warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius.
While an initial group of more than 20 countries had pledged to stop public investments in overseas fossil fuel projects by the end of 2022, some are backsliding as the hunt for alternatives to Russian gas continues. The credibility of the COP27 process was further undermined by the significant presence of representatives from fossil fuel companies. An estimated 200 people connected to oil, gas and coal were included in country delegations, with another 236 with trade groups and other nongovernmental organisations.
It does little to inspire confidence that COP28 will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates in November, whose President has pledged to continue providing oil and gas “for as long as the world is in need.”
The reality remains that there continues to be massive profit in oil and fossil fuels. BP reported profits of $5bn (£4bn) for the first three months of 2023, down from $6.2bn in the same period last year. For the whole of 2022 BP made $27.2bn (£21.8bn). Shell reported profits of $9.6bn for the first three months of 2023, which was higher than the same period last year, when Shell reported a record $40 billion (£32.5 billion) profit for the year.
The challenge of investment in green technology is being led by China. The highest clean energy investment levels in 2021 were in China ($380 billion), followed by the European Union ($260 billion) and the United States ($215 billion).
While the loss and damage agreement reached at COP27 is welcome, the United Nations needs to accelerate implementation and put pressure upon the worlds wealthy nations to make good existing promises to help developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to the existing challenges of global warming.
As it stands, most of the positive trends in clean energy investment are leaving developing economies behind. Virtually all of the global increase in spending on renewables, grids and storage since 2020 has taken place elsewhere. More needs to be done to bridge the gap between emerging and developing economies’ one-fifth share of global clean energy investment, and their two-thirds share of the global population. Without clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies, the world will face a major dividing line in efforts to address climate change and reach other sustainable development goals.
The disparity between the richer nations of the Global North and the underdevelopment of the Global South will, as a consequence, exacerbate the migration crisis which is already resulting in an increase in right wing governments across Europe, determined to promote the fortress mentality and use migration as an excuse to cover for their own economic failings.
The drive for profit of international capitalism, still getting rich on oil and fossil fuel extraction, while under investing in alternative technologies, is one factor. The other is the impact upon people in their localities and their perception of what is in their best interests.
The recent British by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip was won by the Tories with a marginal majority, not because of any national trend in their direction, but as a result of the proposals of the Mayor of London to extend the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) into their area. As a result, Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is being pressured to roll back the limited commitments made by the Tories to invest in renewables. At the same time, Labour leader, Kier Starmer, is under pressure to dilute Labour’s commitment to its green agenda for fear of losing votes.
Nothing better illustrates the short termism of capitalist thinking than the current response to the climate crisis, both the short term dash for profits of the international corporations and the short term dash for votes of political parties. Only socialist planning, within an economy where resources are controlled by the people and deployed in their interests, can provide the ultimate guarantees necessary to address global warming.
The struggle to address the climate crisis is a class issue. It is objectively linked to the wider ideological differences in the world. We need system change, not just climate change. The struggle for socialism and against climate catastrophe must go hand in hand, otherwise we may all be in danger of being left fiddling, while more than Rome burns.
Avanti Populo 