23rd December 2022
Zelensky addresses US Congress – more weapons in prospect
“So this is Christmas and what have you done”
Famous opening lines to the John Lennon and Yoko Ono classic Happy Xmas (War is Over) their Xmas hit which doubled as a protest against US involvement in VietNam.
Sadly, in a world dominated by imperialism, war is never over. This Xmas the focus of war is in Ukraine and the carefully stage managed visit of Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, to Washington this week to appeal for more aid and more weapons has dominated US and world headlines.
The current emphasis for US President, Joe Biden, is upon getting a further $45 billion package across the line before the Democrats lose control of the House of Representatives in January, following the November mid-term election results. The Republicans edged ahead following those polls and many are sceptical about providing a blank cheque for Zelensky, whatever their concerns may be about perceived Russian expansionism.
Not that this represents a volte face by right wing Republicans, who still want to see the US as the dominant world power. For most there would be little hesitation in interfering, either overtly or covertly in Cuba, Venezuela or Nicaragua for example, territory which many still regard as the US backyard.
However, leading Republican, Kevin McCarthy, stated recently that “people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine.” Recent polling reported in the Wall St. Journal suggests that politicians are following the trend of US voters, 30% of whom think that the US is doing too much to support Ukraine, up from 6% in a March poll. Amongst Republicans those figures are up from 13% in March to 27% now.
The share of Republican voters who said the US has not taken enough actions to aid Ukraine fell from 61% in March to 17% in the recent poll.
If Congress passes the bill to agree a further $45 billion to fuel the war in Ukraine US spending, since the conflict began in February, will amount to more than $100 billion, allocated over four emergency spending packages. While there is a growing demand for peace negotiations, with nearly half of Americans favouring pressure to settle for peace as soon as possible, the US and Ukrainian governments continue to assert that Russia is not prepared to negotiate in good faith and would exploit any peace agreement for military advantage.
Given that the current conflict was precipitated by the failure of Ukraine to adhere to the Minsk peace deal agreed in 2015, giving recognition to the Russian speaking population in the Donbas region, this is disingenuous to say the least. As a result of Ukraine reneging on the agreement an estimated 14,000 people were killed in the Donbas, eventually resulting in the Russian intervention.
Neither the people of Ukraine nor the people of Russia will benefit from the conflict continuing. Essentially the war is being fought between two right wing nationalist governments, one with its own regional agenda, the other being used as a tool by the West and NATO to complete the encirclement of Russia which has been going on for the past thirty years.
The posturing of Zelensky, that Ukraine will fight on till victory, may make for good media soundbites but without ongoing US aid and Western weapons being poured into the conflict Zelensky would have to negotiate. The alternative is that the current proxy war which NATO is mounting against Russia, with Ukraine as a conduit, will become a direct confrontation between the world’s two most heavily armed nuclear states.
If the US policy objective is to contain Russia that would be achieved, even allowing for Russian presence in the Donbass and Crimea, given the encirclement policy NATO has implemented. There is little space for Russia to expand into without risking a direct attack upon a NATO member, which would give even Putin pause for thought.
If the West however is seeking to defeat Russia militarily, or weaken it to bring about regime change, that is a much longer and more dangerous game. Confining such a conflict to Europe would be impossible and the prospect of direct conflict with China would loom. That is the danger to which the anti war movements across Europe and elsewhere in the world must be alert. Campaigning to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine, with a negotiated settlement to which both sides adhere, must be a priority for 2023.
For the people of Russia and the Ukraine in particular, it will be difficult to contemplate a happy Christmas until war is over.
Avanti Populo is taking an end of year break and will be back in the New Year. Best wishes and solidarity with those currently on strike and in struggle. Victory in 2023!!
Avanti Populo 